Global Economic Prospects, 2010

We are pleased to share with you the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospect 2010–released yesterday. The report warns that while the worst of the financial crisis may be over, the global recovery is fragile. It predicts that the fallout from the crisis will change the landscape for finance and growth over the next 10 years. The financial crisis has taken its toll on achieving the 2015 poverty Millennium Development Goal (MDG). Newly updated World Bank estimates suggest that the crisis will leave an additional 64 million people in extreme poverty in 2009 and some 50 million in 2010 relative to a no crisis scenario.6 These depressing statistics notwithstanding, the relatively rapid rebound in developing countries, their future medium term prospects as described in the first part of this chapter combined with the significant progress in most regions since 1990, the poverty MDG is likely to be met at the global level. Global GDP, which declined by 2.2 percent in 2009, is expected to grow 2.7 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2011[1]. Prospects for developing countries are for a relatively robust recovery, growing 5.2 percent this year and 5.8 percent in 2011 — up from 1.2 percent in 2009. GDP in rich countries, which declined by 3.3 percent in 2009, is expected to increase much less quickly—by 1.8 and 2.3 percent in 2010 and 2011. World trade volumes, which fell by a staggering 14.4 percent in 2009, are projected to expand by 4.3 and 6.2 percent this year and in 2011. While this is the most likely scenario, considerable uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook. Depending on consumer and business confidence in the next few quarters and the timing of fiscal and monetary stimulus withdrawal, growth in 2011 could be as low as 2.5 percent and as high as 3.4 percent. You can download the full report from this site. Moreover, regional summaries are available at this site.